I foolishly projected that Super Tuesday would leave the democrats with a one-woman-race...and shattered remains of a failed campaign in the obama camp. Thats not exactly how the music played...
Tomorrow, Obama is most likely gonna take the overall lead with relatively big victories in mid-sized states - he is already ahead in terms of delegates won in the primaries, but when counting the superdelegates as well Billary is still edging him narrowly.
Obama seems to have made a movement out of his campaign...he is counting his donorlist in hundreds of thousands, theres queus for the caucases to vote for him and hes basically just riding a wave of succes. Putting on objective mathematical glasses Clinton still has the upperhand, she is polling well in the big delegate-rich states later on (primarily Ohio and Texas, both held in early march)
...and this is her biggest problem, she might face a lex Guiliano. He was republican frontrunner, everything was going well and he had the perfect plan...mathematically. He wasnt gonna waste time and money on pity little states - and focused on the first of big ones, Florida. It made sense, Florida more or less had more delegates to grab than all the ones before it combined, he was polling well there and had loads of staff and money to pour into the campaign as it was much more narrowly focused than any other candidates.
Trouble was..and potentially is, for Clinton. Math isnt everything (neither is miracles Mr. religious nutter). The tension and the atmosphere, the momentum, the waves of excitement, the movements...all of it matters just as much as the mathematical studies. A win in Maine can create extacy in the movement, that inspires more groundtroopers to storm out and campaign, positive spin in the media, donors flocking to be part of a succes, all of it going into another positive spin that turns a tiny triumph in an insignificant state into an unstoppable snowball that demolishes all the clever mathematical plans the opponents might have.
Thats the lex Guiliano, he lost the excitement, that made the sources of funding run out, media kept broadcasting negative stories, less campaigners and fewer donors could be bothered to contribute to a fiasco...and in the end he got his ass kicked in Florida and dropped out. The very same could happen to Clinton in the next month - her campaign has more or less openly conceeded all states before Texas/Ohio, the intention being to downplay expectations and potentially get some "surprise" victory spin out of it - but another possible outcome is that she looses a pretty good upperhand on the floor....
Anyway...in other words, I was wrong about Super Tuesday. Hillary won, but nowhere near as big as she should have done to clean the table...I hope she ends up having coffee with Guiliano to sulk about how clearcut favorites can throw it all away, but thats something different entirely.