thepainfiles (thepainfiles) wrote,
thepainfiles
thepainfiles

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Obama crosses the line wednesday

Finally it looks like we´re gonna have a decision in the dogfight Obama vs Clinton....

The DNC board ruled on Michigan and Florida. Obama wasnt on the ballot in Michigan and didnt campaign there (actually Clinton was the only one) - she got 60 percent of the vote, 40% voted uncommitted. In Florida, the candidates had signed an agreement not to campaign, Hillary did anyway...and won the primary there obviously (she probably would in a fair game too, due to the elderly population, the hispanics etc)

Anyway...the board ruled...In michigan -> they went with the exit poll giving it to hillary 60-40...and then cutting the delegates in half - so she got 34,5, he got 29,5. In florida, they took on the result - but cut it in half. So, she made a gain, but nowhere near as big as she had hoped (she wanted all delegates seated, and 100% of the Michigan delegates) - Obama on the other hand might feel that it isnt entirely fair that shes rewarded delegates in states that wasnt really on the calendar, it kind of changes the rules reversely (for instance, he would stand a good chance of winning Michigan - but it´d require his name being on the ballot for a start :) )

Obama ok´d the decision(to get peace and unity im sure) - hillary reserved the right to appeal and take it all the way to the

But - the new magic number then is 2118 -> he is at 2,052....she is at 1,877.5. They have 86 left to split in contests and about 200 superdelegates havent endorsed...so...i think he will reach the magic number wednesday -> loosing 65-35 in puerto rico (35-20), south dakota 45-55 (7-8), montana 48-52 (7-9) -> very pessimistic on Obamas behalf but gives him 37 pledged delegates....so come tuesday he will just need about 20 superdelegates in the backhand to close it. Im sure theres 20 out of the 200 (+some of Clintons) that he´s either kept for this occation or just desperate to see it end finally.

She might still wanna fight and take the Florida/Michigan issue to the convent. But Obama reaching the magic number will realisticly close the deal - I think she will have very few superdelegates left by her side if she tries and a mediastorm the size of Katrina heading her way.

Obama crosses the line on wednesday. Now lets hope he can trash that old warmonger McCain :)
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